We watched Episode 12 of Top Chef last night (spoilers coming). To say the least, we’re not crazy about this season of the show, although we still watch it — we love the cooking.
If you recall, after the first episode in November I made some predictions about the results. A month into the show, Emily, our friend and reader, suggested that I underestimated the women; and today pointed out that I definitely under estimated Carla. I figured it was worth checking the numbers, so here they are:
| Contestant | Prediction | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Ariane | 4 | 8 | -4 |
| Carla | 2 | final | - |
| Danny | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Fabio | 8 | final | - |
| Eugene | final | 7 | 6 |
| Hosea | 12 | final | - |
| Jamie | 13 | 11 | 2 |
| Jeff | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Jill | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Lauren | 1 | 1 | - |
| Leah | final | 12 | 1 |
| Melissa | 6 | 7 | -1 |
| Patrick | 1 | 1 | - |
| Radhika | 3 | 9 | -6 |
| Richard | 11 | 3 | 8 |
| Stefan | winner | final | - |
| Absolute Avg. | 3.45 | ||
| Avg. | 1.45 | ||
| Male Avg. | 3.8 | ||
| Female Avg. | -0.5 | ||
There are a couple of ways to interpret these results. Here’s my interpretation. It looks like I definitely over-estimate the men, on average they were kicked off 3.8 episodes earlier than expected. But it was a mixed bag with the women, the major outliers were Radhika and Jill. Jill was kicked off much earlier than I expected and Radhika much later.
I’m not upset about Jill, as I originally said, I took a random guess with her. But Radhika is a different story. Both her and Carla fit Carla’s description of the tortoise in the race. They were bland and boring, and didn’t belong in a “TOP” Chef competition. The fact that Carla has made it into the finale makes me ill. She seems like a sweet, good-intentioned person, who is probably a fine cook. But in no way on earth does the person who hides behind the same pastry dish on three episodes belong in the finale.
Also, I did respond in December that I had underestimated Radhika, but continued my prediction that she would be off soon enough, and she was kicked off, two episodes after my comment. There were other issues as well. Episode six didn’t see anyone leave the show, due to some technical issues. And they accepted four contestants into the finale this year.
At the end of the day, we enjoy watching cooking, but remind ourselves that this show is heavily produced and there’s a lot of influence during the judging to keep the show interesting. Oh well. (p.s. I’m sticking with Stefan as the winner)
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I underestimated Carla as well. I didn’t think her flaky crusts would get her that far. I was blown away by her pleasing Jacques Pepin. Will she win? IMHO I say no, but she has proven she deserves to be in contention.
I love your version of Shepard’s pie!
I underestimated Carla, but now she’s one of my faves! She’s so funny and animated (she studied acting before she decided to focus on cooking) and i just love her facial expressions and her loud exclamation!
i also love fabio. cause he’s a charmer. LOL.
I don’t understand the animosity towards Stefan. He can cook. I don’t find him arrogant. He just wins challenges and you don’t!
In that vein, why is Hosea SOOOO obsessed with Stefan! It’s always, Stefan this, Stefan that. I swear he’s in love with him.
I totally thought Carla was going to go home early. In my opinion based on what I saw and heard from the judges, Leah should have gone home last episode instead of Jamie and Stefan should have gone home this episode. Overcooked salmon > runny eggs in terms of whats worse.
Your chart is misleading, b/c you only factor in how far off you were for people who have already been kicked off, and therefore don’t factor in the biggest outlier – Carla, who will end up being on for at least 11 more episodes than you predicted.
I’m with Liverpool – earlier on I thought that all she could really do was make a delicious crust, but the past few episodes she’s been consistently at or near the top in both quickfires and elimination challenges. It definitely seems like she merits a place on the show, though I would still be surprised if she won.
I’m disappointed that Jamie is gone though. I would’ve liked to have seen her in the finals.
The scoring system for top chef is flawed. It drives me nuts. Basically you can be the best chef for six weeks in a row and then get kicked off for one mistake. The way it should work is that each week the contestant’s dishes should be judged by some point criteria and the chef with the lowest cumulative points for that week (adding the points from all previous weeks to the current week) should be eliminated. It might reduce some of the drama, but it is a much fairer system.
Generally, I’m not impressed by the chefs this season. Too many people just cook simple things well, which makes a good chef, not a Top Chef. Carla and Ariane both got too far for that.
Pearl, Carla’s facial expressions actually freak me out a bit, but I love Fabio. His cooking seems hit or miss but his accent and his odd metaphors are hilarious. He’d be better for a TV show then opening a restaurant.
TS, Lon feels the same way about Stefan.
Phi, you bring up one of the main things that disappoint me about this season. I think the show is now over-produced and they are keeping people on or kicking people off partly based on production value. Leah lasted longer than she should have because they wanted to wait till she hooked up with Hosea. They wouldn’t kick off Stefan even though it does seem he should have lost that time. This is because he’s so argumentative and combative…he’s too good for the show. Now that they built up the Hosea/Stefan rivalry (which like TS mentioned is really only in Hosea’s mind), I’m pretty sure they will be the last two standing…and it’s not necessarily because they deserve to be.
Emily, the chart is not misleading but the calculation of avg’s is. Carla still hasn’t won me over. I don’t think she should’ve been able to win twice for the same thing and now she’s kind of doing the Ariane thing….winning for nothing special.
Overall, I’m so disappointed in this season that I don’t really even care to watch anymore. I would like to see Fabio host his own food/comedy show though.
I am not thrilled with these season, usually I am kinda bored with the episodes. Jamie shouldn’t have gotten kicked off. But whatever, I don’t really have any loyalty towards any of them.
Top Chef this season doesn’t have to have much talent. Hosea hasn’t cooked anything that really was that interesting; Jamie, although she seems to have more chops, just keeps making soups and scallops. Leah hasn’t really done anything of note, as have not Fabio or Carla. The challenges have been boring — Superbowl challenge? What the heck.
Bill, I agree with you but I’m not sure it even matters at this point, given they are not really judging anyway.
Manger la ville, yea, snooze…
JS, especially the quickfire challenges…what the heck yo?
Yep. It went too far.
There is some discussion of WDTV Live in a previous comment. See this thread.